Spring economic output fell just 0.21% year-on-year despite war and blockade.

The strategy assumed imminent collapse, but Iran’s economy remains battered, not broken.

Market exchange-rate valuations overstate the damage, since constant-price output per person still exceeds 2018 levels.

Nearly 500,000 jobs vanished by June, and a household survey next month tests how much more households can absorb.

Sources: Responsible Statecraft