El Niño heat could kill 450,000 people by February.

Most deaths fall on people without air conditioning across the tropics and Global South.

Researchers combined temperature-mortality curves for 24,000 regions with a seasonal forecast to model deaths through February.

“We’re hoping this information is actionable,” said Emily Grover-Kopec of the Rhodium Group.

The forecast depends on El Niño’s actual course, and scientists expect a second wave of deaths after February.

Sources: New Scientist