United StatesOutside China, about 150 launches lack a rocket through 2030.
Quilty Space says US military demand could double it unless SpaceX extends Falcon 9.
Quilty cites Russian rockets leaving the Western market, delayed new rockets, Amazon Leo demand and SpaceX winding down Falcon 9.
“If you haven’t booked your launch already, and you need one, you’re late,” said Caleb Henry of Quilty Space.
Quilty expects the crunch to peak in 2028 and says it might not ease until the late 2030s.
How each outlet framed it
- Ars Technica
- quantifies the shortfall at about 150 launches to 2030, doubling with US military demand, and Caleb Henry's late-2030s recovery estimate
Sources: Ars Technica