London2026 has 67% odds of record warmth, Carbon Brief says.
Datasets disagree: record odds range from 97% at Berkeley Earth to under 20% at Copernicus.
A strengthening El Niño adds heat to human-caused warming, with January-September around 1.45C above pre-industrial.
The analysis projects 2027 at 1.7C above pre-industrial, with 96% odds of a record.
How each outlet framed it
- Carbon Brief
- foregrounds El Niño as the driver: 67% odds of a record year, with datasets ranging from 97% (Berkeley Earth) to under 20%
Sources: Carbon Brief