2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
13 %
-7.14% day
A Polymarket contract on the party split of the next US Congress, paying out if Republicans hold both the Senate and the House after the 2026 midterms. It prices one of four possible chamber combinations, so it moves as traders shift weight between them.
Sep 1 · 13.00 % · 0.0% vs the window’s open
the numbers32
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2 | 13.00 % | |
| Aug 3 | 13.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 4 | 13.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 5 | 13.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 6low | 12.00 % | −7.7% |
| Aug 7 | 13.00 % | +8.3% |
| Aug 8 | 13.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 9 | 13.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 10 | 13.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 11 | 12.00 % | −7.7% |
| Aug 12 | 12.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 13 | 12.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 14 | 13.00 % | +8.3% |
| Aug 15high | 14.00 % | +7.7% |
| Aug 16 | 14.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 17 | 13.00 % | −7.1% |
| Aug 18 | 13.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 19 | 13.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 20 | 13.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 21 | 13.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 22 | 13.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 23 | 13.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 24 | 12.00 % | −7.7% |
| Aug 25 | 12.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 26 | 12.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 27 | 12.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 28 | 12.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 29 | 12.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 30 | 12.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 31 | 12.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 1 | 14.00 % | +16.7% |
| Sep 1latest | 13.00 % | −7.1% |
Lately
The market barely moved, holding between 12% on Aug 6 and 14% on Aug 15 before settling at 13%. What moved in the same window was the venue rather than the odds: a Ninth Circuit ruling confirmed state powers over prediction markets, Connecticut sued Kalshi, South Korea restricted Polymarket access, and a White House teleprompter operator paid a fine over bets on the president's speeches.