Bab el-Mandeb closed by Sept 30?
5 %
-16.67% day
A Polymarket contract on whether the Bab el-Mandeb strait — the Red Sea gateway carrying traffic between the Suez Canal and the Indian Ocean — will be closed to shipping by a set date. Traders price the risk that war shuts one of the world's busiest sea lanes.
Aug 29 · 5.00 % · −77.3% vs the window’s open
the numbers32
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 30high | 22.00 % | |
| Jul 31 | 14.00 % | −36.4% |
| Aug 1 | 16.00 % | +14.3% |
| Aug 2 | 14.00 % | −12.5% |
| Aug 3 | 11.00 % | −21.4% |
| Aug 4 | 9.00 % | −18.2% |
| Aug 5 | 9.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 6 | 8.00 % | −11.1% |
| Aug 7 | 10.00 % | +25.0% |
| Aug 8 | 11.00 % | +10.0% |
| Aug 9 | 8.00 % | −27.3% |
| Aug 10 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 11 | 10.00 % | +25.0% |
| Aug 12 | 11.00 % | +10.0% |
| Aug 13 | 11.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 14 | 11.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 15 | 10.00 % | −9.1% |
| Aug 16 | 12.00 % | +20.0% |
| Aug 17 | 10.00 % | −16.7% |
| Aug 18 | 11.00 % | +10.0% |
| Aug 19 | 14.00 % | +27.3% |
| Aug 20 | 11.00 % | −21.4% |
| Aug 21 | 8.00 % | −27.3% |
| Aug 22 | 9.00 % | +12.5% |
| Aug 23 | 8.00 % | −11.1% |
| Aug 24 | 7.00 % | −12.5% |
| Aug 25 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 26 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 27 | 6.00 % | −14.3% |
| Aug 28 | 6.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 29 | 6.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 29latest | 5.00 % | −16.7% |
Lately
The contract has fallen from 22% on Jul 30 to 5%, its lowest of the window, as traders unwound the closure bet through August. Nothing in the month's news explains the drift beyond the absence of a closure event itself.