Banxico cuts rates 25 bps after Nov 2026?
31 %
−4 pts day
A Polymarket contract on whether Banco de México cuts its overnight rate by a quarter point after November. That rate sets borrowing costs across Mexico and the yield gap that draws foreign money into the peso.
Oct 22 · 31.00 % · +28.0 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers27
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23 | 3.00 % | |
| Sep 24 | 3.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 25 | 7.00 % | +4.00 pts |
| Sep 26 | 12.00 % | +5.00 pts |
| Sep 27 | 11.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Sep 28 | 12.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Sep 29 | 10.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Sep 30low | 2.00 % | −8.00 pts |
| Oct 1 | 3.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 2 | 3.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 3 | 2.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 4 | 2.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 5 | 3.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 6 | 2.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 7 | 2.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 8 | 2.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 10 | 27.00 % | +25.0 pts |
| Oct 11 | 20.00 % | −7.00 pts |
| Oct 12 | 20.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 13 | 20.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 14 | 20.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 16 | 17.00 % | −3.00 pts |
| Oct 17 | 20.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Oct 19 | 20.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 20 | 19.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 21high | 35.00 % | +16.0 pts |
| Oct 22latest | 31.00 % | −4.00 pts |
Lately
The fortnight's rate news came from the Fed, not Banxico: Warsh withheld guidance and called AI a shock to the economy, and nearly all economists said the Fed would skip October but raise rates again in December. None of it was about Mexico's central bank, and none of it accounts for the bets on a Banxico cut.