Clarity Act (HR3633) into law 2026?
14 %
+0.00% day
A Polymarket contract on whether a specific US crypto market-structure bill becomes law before the year is out. The price is what traders will pay for a yes, so it tracks the bill's odds of clearing Congress and being signed rather than its merits.
Sep 1 · 14.00 % · −58.8% vs the window’s open
the numbers32
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2high | 34.00 % | |
| Aug 3 | 29.00 % | −14.7% |
| Aug 4 | 27.00 % | −6.9% |
| Aug 5 | 23.00 % | −14.8% |
| Aug 6 | 17.00 % | −26.1% |
| Aug 7 | 16.00 % | −5.9% |
| Aug 8 | 16.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 9 | 21.00 % | +31.3% |
| Aug 10 | 21.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 11 | 25.00 % | +19.0% |
| Aug 12 | 22.00 % | −12.0% |
| Aug 13 | 20.00 % | −9.1% |
| Aug 14 | 21.00 % | +5.0% |
| Aug 15 | 20.00 % | −4.8% |
| Aug 16 | 19.00 % | −5.0% |
| Aug 17 | 19.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 18 | 20.00 % | +5.3% |
| Aug 19 | 21.00 % | +5.0% |
| Aug 20 | 24.00 % | +14.3% |
| Aug 21 | 26.00 % | +8.3% |
| Aug 22 | 26.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 23 | 25.00 % | −3.8% |
| Aug 24 | 24.00 % | −4.0% |
| Aug 25 | 19.00 % | −20.8% |
| Aug 26low | 14.00 % | −26.3% |
| Aug 27 | 14.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 28 | 14.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 29 | 14.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 30 | 14.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 31 | 14.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 1 | 14.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 1latest | 14.00 % | 0.0% |
Lately
The slide from 34% on Aug 2 to 14% tracked a run of legal and scandal news around prediction markets and crypto regulation: the Ninth Circuit ruled on Aug 28 that Kalshi's sports bets aren't "swaps," confirming state powers, Connecticut filed its own suit a day earlier, and a White House teleprompter operator settled an insider-trading probe over bets on Trump's speeches.