Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
89 %
+0.00% day
A Polymarket contract on whether the Federal Reserve raises its policy rate at or before the October 2026 meeting. It trades as a price on an outcome, so it reprices on every inflation print and official remark that shifts the case for tightening.
Sep 15 · 89.00 % · +122.5% vs the window’s open
the numbers32
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16 | 40.00 % | |
| Aug 17low | 39.00 % | −2.5% |
| Aug 18 | 39.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 19 | 39.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 20 | 41.00 % | +5.1% |
| Aug 21 | 41.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 22 | 42.00 % | +2.4% |
| Aug 23 | 41.00 % | −2.4% |
| Aug 24 | 41.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 25 | 41.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 26 | 43.00 % | +4.9% |
| Aug 27 | 45.00 % | +4.7% |
| Aug 28 | 45.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 29 | 63.00 % | +40.0% |
| Aug 30 | 59.00 % | −6.3% |
| Aug 31 | 59.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 1 | 65.00 % | +10.2% |
| Sep 2 | 67.00 % | +3.1% |
| Sep 3 | 66.00 % | −1.5% |
| Sep 4 | 56.00 % | −15.2% |
| Sep 5 | 62.00 % | +10.7% |
| Sep 6 | 62.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 7 | 62.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 8 | 62.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 9 | 64.00 % | +3.2% |
| Sep 10 | 66.00 % | +3.1% |
| Sep 11 | 76.00 % | +15.2% |
| Sep 12 | 84.00 % | +10.5% |
| Sep 13 | 82.00 % | −2.4% |
| Sep 14 | 83.00 % | +1.2% |
| Sep 15high | 89.00 % | +7.2% |
| Sep 15latest | 89.00 % | 0.0% |
Lately
A war premium did the repricing: Houthi fighters took Yemen's port of Mocha, oil ran to $105, and an oil shock argues for a hike rather than the cut the market had been carrying. Goldman Sachs dropped its no-hike call on Friday, and the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5% as traders positioned for the meeting.