Houthi-Saudi ceasefire by Oct 31?
11 %
−3 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if Yemen's Houthi movement and Saudi Arabia agree a ceasefire by the end of October. Its price is what traders will stake on a truce, and Gulf oil exports and Red Sea shipping ride on it.
Oct 18 · 11.00 % · −10.0 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers30
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | 21.00 % | |
| Sep 20 | 23.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Sep 21 | 24.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Sep 22 | 45.00 % | +21.0 pts |
| Sep 23 | 51.00 % | +6.00 pts |
| Sep 24 | 49.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Sep 25 | 52.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Sep 26high | 54.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Sep 27 | 47.00 % | −7.00 pts |
| Sep 28 | 51.00 % | +4.00 pts |
| Sep 29 | 48.00 % | −3.00 pts |
| Sep 30 | 35.00 % | −13.0 pts |
| Oct 1 | 19.00 % | −16.0 pts |
| Oct 2 | 37.00 % | +18.0 pts |
| Oct 3 | 28.00 % | −9.00 pts |
| Oct 4 | 28.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 5 | 14.00 % | −14.0 pts |
| Oct 6 | 10.00 % | −4.00 pts |
| Oct 7 | 8.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 8low | 7.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 9 | 7.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 10 | 12.00 % | +5.00 pts |
| Oct 11 | 13.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 12 | 14.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 13 | 15.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 14 | 15.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 15 | 15.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 16 | 14.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 17 | 14.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 18latest | 11.00 % | −3.00 pts |
Lately
Traders backed away from a deal as the war moved onto Saudi soil: a Houthi strike on Riyadh's airport killed 13, a missile set fire to an Aramco building in Dhahran, and the Houthis told Aramco shareholders to sell. Egypt has since approved troops for Saudi Arabia, and Saudi National Guard officers died in a helicopter crash near Najran.