Iran airspace closure by Sept 30?
12 %
+33.33% day
A prediction market on whether Iran's airspace will be closed to civil aviation by a set date. Traders price the risk that a war shuts the corridor, and the price is what they will pay for that outcome, not a forecast.
Aug 31 · 12.00 % · −73.3% vs the window’s open
the numbers32
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1 | 45.00 % | |
| Aug 2high | 52.00 % | +15.6% |
| Aug 3 | 36.00 % | −30.8% |
| Aug 4 | 28.00 % | −22.2% |
| Aug 5 | 26.00 % | −7.1% |
| Aug 6 | 22.00 % | −15.4% |
| Aug 7 | 28.00 % | +27.3% |
| Aug 8 | 19.00 % | −32.1% |
| Aug 9 | 19.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 10 | 17.00 % | −10.5% |
| Aug 11 | 17.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 12 | 19.00 % | +11.8% |
| Aug 13 | 17.00 % | −10.5% |
| Aug 14 | 17.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 15 | 17.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 16 | 14.00 % | −17.6% |
| Aug 17 | 14.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 18 | 17.00 % | +21.4% |
| Aug 19 | 15.00 % | −11.8% |
| Aug 20 | 12.00 % | −20.0% |
| Aug 21 | 14.00 % | +16.7% |
| Aug 22 | 13.00 % | −7.1% |
| Aug 23 | 10.00 % | −23.1% |
| Aug 24 | 10.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 25 | 10.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 26 | 7.00 % | −30.0% |
| Aug 27low | 6.00 % | −14.3% |
| Aug 28 | 6.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 29 | 6.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 30 | 6.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 31 | 9.00 % | +50.0% |
| Aug 31latest | 12.00 % | +33.3% |
Lately
The price has collapsed from 52% on Aug 2 to 12%, bottoming at 6% on Aug 27, as the fighting moved off Iranian airspace and onto shipping and finance: Hormuz was declared open on Aug 28 with tankers crossing, and Washington's pressure ran through sanctions on Banque Misr rather than air campaigns. The US strike on Larak Island on Aug 30 lifted it only slightly.