Iran leadership change by December 31?
17 %
+6.25% day
A Polymarket contract on whether Iran's supreme leader or government is replaced before a set date. The price is what traders will pay for that outcome, so it is a live read on how fragile outsiders think the Islamic Republic's hold on power is.
Aug 31 · 17.00 % · −26.1% vs the window’s open
the numbers32
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1high | 23.00 % | |
| Aug 2 | 23.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 3 | 20.00 % | −13.0% |
| Aug 4 | 16.00 % | −20.0% |
| Aug 5low | 14.00 % | −12.5% |
| Aug 6 | 16.00 % | +14.3% |
| Aug 7 | 16.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 8 | 21.00 % | +31.3% |
| Aug 9 | 23.00 % | +9.5% |
| Aug 10 | 20.00 % | −13.0% |
| Aug 11 | 19.00 % | −5.0% |
| Aug 12 | 19.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 13 | 19.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 14 | 19.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 15 | 18.00 % | −5.3% |
| Aug 16 | 18.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 17 | 17.00 % | −5.6% |
| Aug 18 | 17.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 19 | 17.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 20 | 16.00 % | −5.9% |
| Aug 21 | 16.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 22 | 16.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 23 | 16.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 24 | 16.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 25 | 16.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 26 | 14.00 % | −12.5% |
| Aug 27 | 17.00 % | +21.4% |
| Aug 28 | 17.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 29 | 17.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 30 | 17.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 31 | 16.00 % | −5.9% |
| Aug 31latest | 17.00 % | +6.3% |
Lately
Traders have marked the chance down by about a quarter over the month even as the war widened: US forces struck two IRGC launchers on Larak Island, Treasury unveiled "Operation Economic Outcast" and designated six Banque Misr branches, and Iran admitted foreign trade has shrunk by more than a third. Tehran still set the terms for Hormuz transit.