Iran leadership change by December 31?
14 %
+1 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if Iran's top leadership changes before the year is out. Its price is what traders will stake on the Islamic Republic's rulers losing power, through war, succession or upheaval.
Oct 21 · 14.00 % · −2.00 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers27
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22high | 16.00 % | |
| Sep 23 | 14.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Sep 24 | 14.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 25 | 14.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 26low | 11.00 % | −3.00 pts |
| Sep 27 | 11.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 28 | 11.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 29 | 11.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 30 | 12.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 1 | 13.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 2 | 12.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 3 | 12.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 4 | 12.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 5 | 12.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 6 | 12.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 7 | 12.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 8 | 12.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 10 | 12.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 11 | 12.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 12 | 12.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 13 | 11.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 14 | 12.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 16 | 13.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 17 | 13.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 19 | 12.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 20 | 13.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 21latest | 14.00 % | +1.00 pts |
Lately
With the US-Iran war in its eighth month, parliament approved a sanctioned missile builder as defence minister, and Tehran set terms for reopening Hormuz as Lavrov offered to broker talks. None of it bears on who holds power in Tehran, and none of it accounts for the price.