Iran leadership change by November 30?
5 %
−1 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if Iran's top leadership changes before its deadline, priced as what traders will pay for that outcome. Iran's Supreme Leader has the final word on war, the nuclear programme and Hormuz.
Nov 4 · 5.00 % · −1.00 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers27
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 | 6.00 % | |
| Oct 6 | 7.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 7 | 7.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 8 | 7.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 9 | 6.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 10 | 7.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 11 | 6.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 12 | 6.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 13 | 6.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 14low | 5.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 15 | 6.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 16 | 7.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 17 | 7.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 19 | 7.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 20 | 8.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 21high | 10.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 23 | 9.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 24 | 10.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 27 | 9.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 28 | 9.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 30 | 10.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 31 | 9.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Nov 1 | 10.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Nov 2 | 9.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Nov 3 | 8.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Nov 4 | 6.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Nov 4latest | 5.00 % | −1.00 pts |
Lately
Tehran spent the fortnight bargaining: three days of Qatari-mediated talks in Doha produced no deal, Iran offered to reopen Hormuz within 2 days of one, and a commander named five conditions for regional security. Trump answered "no" on striking Iran after the midterms, though Netanyahu pressed him to.