Israel closes airspace by Sept 30?
6 %
-14.29% day
A Polymarket contract on whether Israel shuts its airspace to civil aviation before a set date. Traders price it as a proxy for how close the region is to a war wide enough to ground flights over Tel Aviv, so it moves with escalation rather than with fighting itself.
Sep 1 · 6.00 % · −50.0% vs the window’s open
the numbers15
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 19high | 12.00 % | |
| Aug 20 | 11.00 % | −8.3% |
| Aug 21 | 10.00 % | −9.1% |
| Aug 22 | 9.00 % | −10.0% |
| Aug 23 | 9.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 24 | 10.00 % | +11.1% |
| Aug 25 | 8.00 % | −20.0% |
| Aug 26 | 7.00 % | −12.5% |
| Aug 27 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 28 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 29low | 6.00 % | −14.3% |
| Aug 30 | 6.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 31 | 9.00 % | +50.0% |
| Sep 1 | 7.00 % | −22.2% |
| Sep 1latest | 6.00 % | −14.3% |
Lately
The price has halved from its 12% peak on Aug 19, when eight strikes hit an airbase in Syria's Idlib and a Trump envoy said the US had no notice. Since then Israeli operations have stayed local — a home struck in Jenin, a hospital compound in Gaza, a car in Beit Jinn — and traders have priced out a wider war.