Israel strikes Greater Beirut by Nov 30?
18 %
−9 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if Israel strikes Greater Beirut, including the southern suburbs where Hezbollah is based, before the end of November. Hitting the capital marks a step beyond fighting along the border.
Nov 4 · 18.00 % · −33.0 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers6
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31high | 51.00 % | |
| Nov 1 | 22.00 % | −29.0 pts |
| Nov 2 | 31.00 % | +9.00 pts |
| Nov 3 | 23.00 % | −8.00 pts |
| Nov 4 | 27.00 % | +4.00 pts |
| Nov 4latest | 18.00 % | −9.00 pts |
Lately
The only Lebanese story of the fortnight came from the south, where Israeli forces expelled farmers at Kfarshouba and then bulldozed their olive grove. Nothing reported concerns Beirut. Neither Israel's election, in which neither bloc reached 61 seats, nor Trump's claim that $4 billion in aid stops at year-end accounts for the price.