Israel military action Lebanon Sep 29?
42 %
-35.38% day
A Polymarket contract paying out if Israel takes military action in Lebanon by 29 September, priced as the share of a dollar traders will pay for that outcome. It is a bet on escalation, not a forecast of it.
Sep 7 · 42.00 % · −14.3% vs the window’s open
the numbers5
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 4 | 49.00 % | |
| Sep 5 | 51.00 % | +4.1% |
| Sep 6 | 50.00 % | −2.0% |
| Sep 7high | 65.00 % | +30.0% |
| Sep 7latest | 42.00 % | −35.4% |
Lately
Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon killed seven and destroyed Ghandour Hospital in Nabatieh al-Fawqa, with an evacuation warning issued for Arab Salim; Lebanon's health ministry counts 17 hospitals damaged since 2 March. Action already under way narrows what a contract on future action can still pay.