Israel-Hamas ceasefire cancelled by Dec 31?
7 %
+1 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if the Israel-Hamas ceasefire is cancelled by Dec 31. Its price is what traders will pay for that outcome, and it reacts to fighting in Gaza and to the politics of the governments behind the truce.
Nov 2 · 7.00 % · 0 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers23
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 3 | 7.00 % | |
| Oct 4low | 6.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 5 | 6.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 6 | 6.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 7 | 7.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 8 | 7.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 9 | 9.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 10 | 7.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 11 | 7.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 12 | 8.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 13 | 8.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 14 | 6.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 16 | 7.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 17 | 9.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 19 | 7.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 20 | 7.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 21 | 6.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 24 | 6.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 25 | 6.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 28 | 13.00 % | +7.00 pts |
| Oct 30high | 16.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Nov 2 | 6.00 % | −10.0 pts |
| Nov 2latest | 7.00 % | +1.00 pts |
Lately
Israel's election left neither bloc with 61 seats without Arab parties, while Israeli strikes kept killing Palestinians in Gaza. Nothing reported links either to the ceasefire's formal status, so neither accounts for the price.