Israel-Iran ceasefire holds through Dec 31?
38 %
−1 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if the ceasefire between Israel and Iran still holds on Dec 31. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and the oil price that rides on it, hang on that truce.
Oct 28 · 38.00 % · −30.0 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers26
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 29high | 68.00 % | |
| Sep 30 | 66.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 1 | 63.00 % | −3.00 pts |
| Oct 2 | 63.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 3 | 62.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 4 | 61.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 5 | 63.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 6 | 61.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 7 | 60.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 8 | 59.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 9 | 56.00 % | −3.00 pts |
| Oct 10 | 57.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 11 | 59.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 12 | 56.00 % | −3.00 pts |
| Oct 13 | 56.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 14 | 54.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 15 | 44.00 % | −10.0 pts |
| Oct 16 | 47.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Oct 17 | 44.00 % | −3.00 pts |
| Oct 19 | 47.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Oct 20 | 50.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Oct 21 | 47.00 % | −3.00 pts |
| Oct 24low | 38.00 % | −9.00 pts |
| Oct 25 | 39.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 28 | 39.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 28latest | 38.00 % | −1.00 pts |
Lately
Israel's army chief reportedly warned Washington off striking Iran before Tuesday's vote, in which polls put Eisenkot ahead of Netanyahu. In Tehran, Khamenei backed the war conditions set for peace talks, and Iran threatened Sinokor's tankers with legal action from 1 November for breaking its Strait of Hormuz transit rules.