Israel-Iran ceasefire holds to Nov 7?
85 %
+2 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if the ceasefire between Israel and Iran is still in force on Nov 7. Its price is what traders will pay on the truce surviving, with Washington's next decision on strikes as the swing factor.
Nov 4 · 85.00 % · +39.0 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers6
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 29low | 46.00 % | |
| Oct 30 | 72.00 % | +26.0 pts |
| Nov 2 | 83.00 % | +11.0 pts |
| Nov 3 | 84.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Nov 4 | 83.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Nov 4latest | 85.00 % | +2.00 pts |
Lately
Netanyahu pressed Trump to strike Iran once the midterms were over, and Trump answered "no" when asked whether he would. Three days of Qatari-mediated talks in Doha produced no deal, but Tehran stayed at the table: it offered a two-day Hormuz reopening and set five conditions for regional security as Qatari mediators flew to Tehran.