Israel-Iran ceasefire Sept 30?
86 %
+3.61% day
A prediction market on whether Israel and Iran will be under a ceasefire by a set date. The price is what traders will pay for that outcome, so it tracks how the fighting, the talks and the pressure campaign are being wagered on, not forecast.
Aug 31 · 86.00 % · +32.3% vs the window’s open
the numbers25
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8 | 65.00 % | |
| Aug 9 | 65.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 10low | 63.00 % | −3.1% |
| Aug 11 | 68.00 % | +7.9% |
| Aug 12 | 72.00 % | +5.9% |
| Aug 13 | 79.00 % | +9.7% |
| Aug 14 | 79.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 15 | 80.00 % | +1.3% |
| Aug 16 | 82.00 % | +2.5% |
| Aug 17 | 84.00 % | +2.4% |
| Aug 18 | 83.00 % | −1.2% |
| Aug 19 | 83.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 20 | 83.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 21 | 82.00 % | −1.2% |
| Aug 22 | 83.00 % | +1.2% |
| Aug 23 | 84.00 % | +1.2% |
| Aug 24 | 88.00 % | +4.8% |
| Aug 25high | 89.00 % | +1.1% |
| Aug 26 | 88.00 % | −1.1% |
| Aug 27 | 89.00 % | +1.1% |
| Aug 28 | 89.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 29 | 89.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 30 | 89.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 31 | 83.00 % | −6.7% |
| Aug 31latest | 86.00 % | +3.6% |
Lately
The odds sat at 63 on Aug 10 and reached 89 on Aug 25, the week Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent widened sanctions and Iran vowed to resist them, and now stand at 86. The shooting has not stopped: US forces struck two IRGC launchers on Larak Island on Sunday, and eight missiles fell over Jordan on Monday.