Israel-Lebanon talks by Sept 18, 2026?
80 %
-5.88% day
A Polymarket contract on whether Israel and Lebanon hold direct talks by a set date. Traders price the chance of negotiation between two states still exchanging fire across the Blue Line, so it moves on strikes and mediation, not on diplomacy alone.
Sep 15 · 80.00 % · −9.1% vs the window’s open
the numbers6
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 11high | 88.00 % | |
| Sep 12 | 84.00 % | −4.5% |
| Sep 13 | 79.00 % | −6.0% |
| Sep 14low | 75.00 % | −5.1% |
| Sep 15 | 85.00 % | +13.3% |
| Sep 15latest | 80.00 % | −5.9% |
Lately
Israeli artillery hit Zawtar al-Sharqiyah in the Nabatieh district on Sunday morning, days after a tunnel demolition at Ali al-Taher the US Geological Survey logged as a 4.1 tremor. The ridge overlooks Nabatieh and the Litani approaches, and holding it gives Israel terrain to bargain with rather than a reason to sit down.