Iran loses Kharg Island by Dec 31?
6 %
+0.00% day
A Polymarket contract on whether Iran loses control of Kharg Island, the terminal that loads most of its crude for export. Traders price it as a proxy for how far a war against Iran's economy is expected to go beyond sanctions and blockade.
Aug 30 · 6.00 % · −53.8% vs the window’s open
the numbers32
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 31 | 13.00 % | |
| Aug 1high | 14.00 % | +7.7% |
| Aug 2 | 14.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 3 | 12.00 % | −14.3% |
| Aug 4 | 11.00 % | −8.3% |
| Aug 5 | 10.00 % | −9.1% |
| Aug 6 | 10.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 7 | 9.00 % | −10.0% |
| Aug 8 | 9.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 9 | 10.00 % | +11.1% |
| Aug 10 | 12.00 % | +20.0% |
| Aug 11 | 10.00 % | −16.7% |
| Aug 12 | 10.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 13 | 10.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 14 | 9.00 % | −10.0% |
| Aug 15 | 9.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 16 | 9.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 17 | 9.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 18 | 8.00 % | −11.1% |
| Aug 19 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 20 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 21 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 22 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 23 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 24 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 25 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 26 | 7.00 % | −12.5% |
| Aug 27 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 28 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 29low | 6.00 % | −14.3% |
| Aug 30 | 6.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 30latest | 6.00 % | 0.0% |
Lately
The odds fell from 14% on Aug 1 to 6% on Aug 29 as the pressure on Iran stayed financial rather than territorial: Washington's "Operation Economic Outcast" cut six Banque Misr branches out of dollar clearing, and Pezeshkian conceded foreign trade has shrunk by more than a third. Hormuz reopened partially under an Iran-Oman corridor.