NATO–Russia clash by Oct 31, 2026?
7 %
+1 pts day
A contract that pays out if Russian and NATO forces clash directly before its deadline. The price is what traders will pay for that outcome, and it moves with incidents on the alliance's border and with Ukraine talks.
Oct 16 · 7.00 % · −5.00 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers31
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 17 | 12.00 % | |
| Sep 18 | 13.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Sep 19 | 16.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Sep 20 | 17.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Sep 21 | 16.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Sep 22 | 19.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Sep 23high | 21.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Sep 24 | 18.00 % | −3.00 pts |
| Sep 25 | 16.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Sep 26 | 17.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Sep 27 | 17.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 28 | 14.00 % | −3.00 pts |
| Sep 29 | 14.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 30 | 14.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 1 | 12.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 2 | 12.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 3 | 12.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 4 | 11.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 5 | 9.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 6 | 8.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 7 | 9.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 8 | 9.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 9 | 9.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 10 | 8.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 11 | 8.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 12 | 7.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 13low | 6.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 14 | 7.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 15 | 8.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 16 | 6.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 16latest | 7.00 % | +1.00 pts |
Lately
The bets fell as the fortnight's news turned from confrontation toward bargaining: Washington hosted talks in Miami with Ukraine and Europe but without Russia, Trump pushed an energy cease-fire and a diesel deal with Russia, and the US threatened to halt Europe-funded arms to Ukraine.