Oil under $80 Nov 2 and Dems win Senate?
4 %
−1 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays only if two things both happen: oil trades under $80 on Nov 2, and the Democrats win control of the US Senate in the midterms. It bets on cheap fuel and a Democratic Senate arriving together.
Oct 16 · 4.00 % · −2.00 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers5
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 13 | 6.00 % | |
| Oct 14high | 8.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 15 | 8.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 16 | 5.00 % | −3.00 pts |
| Oct 16latest | 4.00 % | −1.00 pts |
Lately
The fortnight's news about prediction markets was about who gets to regulate them, not about oil or the Senate race: 39 states and 145 tribal nations urged the Supreme Court to take up the question, and Kalshi's CEO said state-led oversight would push the markets out. None of it accounts for the price.