Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by Dec 31, 2026?
16 %
−1 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if Russia and Ukraine agree a ceasefire before the end of 2026. Its price is what traders will pay for that outcome, and it moves on talks, envoys and sanctions decisions.
Oct 27 · 16.00 % · −5.00 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers27
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 28high | 21.00 % | |
| Sep 29 | 20.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Sep 30 | 19.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 1low | 14.00 % | −5.00 pts |
| Oct 2 | 14.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 3 | 14.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 4 | 16.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 5 | 16.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 6 | 15.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 7 | 16.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 8 | 14.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 9 | 14.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 10 | 17.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Oct 11 | 15.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 12 | 17.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 13 | 18.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 14 | 16.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 15 | 18.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 16 | 16.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 17 | 14.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 19 | 14.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 20 | 17.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Oct 21 | 18.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 23 | 21.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Oct 24 | 21.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 27 | 17.00 % | −4.00 pts |
| Oct 27latest | 16.00 % | −1.00 pts |
Lately
The Kremlin confirmed talks in Abu Dhabi but said Putin wants a final settlement, not a "short" truce, and his aide said Washington cannot force Kyiv to comply. Trump put on hold new Russia sanctions he signed into law. The only truce on offer was local: Melania Trump announced a ceasefire for up to 2,000 people in occupied Oleshky.