Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by 2026?
24 %
+0.00% day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if fighting between Russia and Ukraine stops under an agreed truce before the year is out. It prices what traders will stake on the war ending, not what any government has promised.
Sep 7 · 24.00 % · −33.3% vs the window’s open
the numbers32
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8high | 36.00 % | |
| Aug 9 | 35.00 % | −2.8% |
| Aug 10 | 35.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 11 | 34.00 % | −2.9% |
| Aug 12 | 30.00 % | −11.8% |
| Aug 13 | 26.00 % | −13.3% |
| Aug 14 | 27.00 % | +3.8% |
| Aug 15 | 27.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 16 | 26.00 % | −3.7% |
| Aug 17 | 27.00 % | +3.8% |
| Aug 18 | 27.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 19 | 22.00 % | −18.5% |
| Aug 20 | 22.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 21 | 23.00 % | +4.5% |
| Aug 22 | 24.00 % | +4.3% |
| Aug 23 | 21.00 % | −12.5% |
| Aug 24 | 24.00 % | +14.3% |
| Aug 25 | 22.00 % | −8.3% |
| Aug 26 | 26.00 % | +18.2% |
| Aug 27 | 23.00 % | −11.5% |
| Aug 28 | 20.00 % | −13.0% |
| Aug 29 | 19.00 % | −5.0% |
| Aug 30 | 19.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 31 | 20.00 % | +5.3% |
| Sep 1 | 20.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 2low | 18.00 % | −10.0% |
| Sep 3 | 18.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 4 | 19.00 % | +5.6% |
| Sep 5 | 34.00 % | +78.9% |
| Sep 6 | 27.00 % | −20.6% |
| Sep 7 | 24.00 % | −11.1% |
| Sep 7latest | 24.00 % | 0.0% |
Lately
Kyiv ordered a battlefield halt for Sept. 5-8 to receive Witkoff and Kushner, and the two armies stopped shooting around Zaporizhzhia long enough for the IAEA to restore external power to the plant. Against that, Ukrainian sea drones hit a vessel at Sochi and set an oil depot ablaze there, and Germany formally blamed Russia for the Leipzig airport drone attack.