Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by Mar 31, 2027?
36 %
+1 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if Russia and Ukraine agree a ceasefire by March 31, 2027. Its price is what traders will pay for that outcome, and it moves with each round of talks, sanctions and escalation.
Oct 28 · 36.00 % · −3.00 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers28
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 29high | 39.00 % | |
| Sep 30 | 36.00 % | −3.00 pts |
| Oct 1 | 34.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 2 | 34.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 3 | 33.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 4 | 34.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 5 | 34.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 6 | 34.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 7 | 33.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 8 | 33.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 9 | 33.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 10 | 34.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 11 | 33.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 12 | 34.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 13 | 32.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 14low | 31.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 15 | 32.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 16 | 32.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 17 | 31.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 18 | 31.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 19 | 31.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 20 | 31.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 21 | 33.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 23 | 38.00 % | +5.00 pts |
| Oct 24 | 36.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 27 | 35.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 28 | 35.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 28latest | 36.00 % | +1.00 pts |
Lately
Witkoff met Putin after the Oslo talks, and the Kremlin confirmed a new round in Abu Dhabi, but Putin said he wants a final settlement, not a "short" truce. Trump put on hold new Russia sanctions he signed into law, and Lavrov said the war will continue and likely escalate.