Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2027?
49 %
+3 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if Russia and Ukraine agree a ceasefire by May 31, 2027. Its price is what traders will pay for that outcome, and it moves on talks, summits and escalation at the front.
Oct 20 · 49.00 % · −2.00 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers31
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 21high | 51.00 % | |
| Sep 22 | 50.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Sep 23 | 51.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Sep 24 | 51.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 25 | 51.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 26 | 51.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 27 | 51.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 28 | 51.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 29 | 50.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Sep 30 | 48.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 1 | 47.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 2 | 47.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 3low | 44.00 % | −3.00 pts |
| Oct 4 | 47.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Oct 5 | 45.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 6 | 46.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 7 | 48.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 8 | 47.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 9 | 47.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 10 | 48.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 11 | 48.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 12 | 48.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 13 | 48.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 14 | 47.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 15 | 47.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 16 | 47.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 17 | 47.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 18 | 47.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 19 | 46.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 20 | 46.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 20latest | 49.00 % | +3.00 pts |
Lately
Diplomacy moved on paper: Zelensky met US envoy Steve Witkoff in Oslo as Washington pressed Kyiv for concessions, and Putin proposed a summit with Trump and Xi that seats no Ukrainian. The war widened at the same time, with Russia hitting 28 energy facilities and Ukrainian drones burning oil at St Petersburg.