Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by Nov 30, 2026?
6 %
−3 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if Russia and Ukraine agree a ceasefire by the end of November 2026. Its price is what traders will pay for that outcome, and it moves with each round of talks and each wave of strikes.
Oct 27 · 6.00 % · −6.00 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers23
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 28high | 12.00 % | |
| Sep 29 | 11.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Sep 30 | 11.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 1 | 9.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 2 | 7.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 3 | 8.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 4 | 10.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 5 | 10.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 6 | 9.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 7 | 8.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 8 | 9.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 10 | 10.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 11 | 9.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 12 | 11.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 13 | 9.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 14 | 9.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 16 | 8.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 17 | 8.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 19 | 9.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 20 | 9.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 21 | 11.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 25 | 9.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 27latest | 6.00 % | −3.00 pts |
Lately
Moscow ruled out the pause this contract pays on: confirming the Abu Dhabi talks, the Kremlin said Putin wants a final settlement, not a "short" truce. The one truce agreed covers occupied Oleshky alone, and Russian strikes on 28 energy facilities left 550,000 households without power.