Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by Oct 31, 2026?
10 %
-64.29% day
A Polymarket contract on whether Russia and Ukraine agree a ceasefire by a set date. Traders buy and sell shares that pay out if it happens, so the price is money at risk on the war ending, not a forecast anyone published.
Sep 5 · 10.00 % · −33.3% vs the window’s open
the numbers32
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 6 | 15.00 % | |
| Aug 7 | 14.00 % | −6.7% |
| Aug 8 | 14.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 9 | 14.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 10 | 14.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 11 | 14.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 12 | 14.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 13 | 12.00 % | −14.3% |
| Aug 14 | 12.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 15 | 12.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 16 | 11.00 % | −8.3% |
| Aug 17 | 10.00 % | −9.1% |
| Aug 18 | 11.00 % | +10.0% |
| Aug 19 | 10.00 % | −9.1% |
| Aug 20 | 9.00 % | −10.0% |
| Aug 21low | 8.00 % | −11.1% |
| Aug 22 | 9.00 % | +12.5% |
| Aug 23 | 9.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 24 | 9.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 25 | 9.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 26 | 12.00 % | +33.3% |
| Aug 27 | 11.00 % | −8.3% |
| Aug 28 | 9.00 % | −18.2% |
| Aug 29 | 9.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 30 | 9.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 31 | 8.00 % | −11.1% |
| Sep 1 | 10.00 % | +25.0% |
| Sep 2 | 9.00 % | −10.0% |
| Sep 3 | 8.00 % | −11.1% |
| Sep 4 | 9.00 % | +12.5% |
| Sep 5high | 28.00 % | +211.1% |
| Sep 5latest | 10.00 % | −64.3% |
Lately
The bid followed word that US envoys Witkoff and Kushner would travel to Moscow and Kyiv with a plan to end the war, and Ukraine ordered a battlefield halt for Sept. 5-8 to receive them. The fighting around it did not pause: Ukrainian sea drones hit an oil depot near Sochi, over 1,000km from the front, and Germany formally blamed Russia for a Leipzig airport drone attack.