Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by Oct 31, 2026?
3 %
0 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if Russia and Ukraine agree a ceasefire before November 2026. Its price is what traders will stake on that outcome, and it moves on talks, strikes and sanctions.
Oct 20 · 3.00 % · −4.00 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers31
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | 7.00 % | |
| Sep 22 | 8.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Sep 23 | 7.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Sep 24 | 8.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Sep 25high | 9.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Sep 26 | 7.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Sep 27 | 7.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 28 | 7.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 29 | 7.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 30 | 8.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 1 | 4.00 % | −4.00 pts |
| Oct 2 | 5.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 3 | 4.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 4 | 5.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 5 | 4.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 6 | 4.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 7 | 4.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 8 | 5.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 9 | 4.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 10 | 5.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 11 | 4.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 12 | 4.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 13 | 4.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 14 | 4.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 15 | 4.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 16 | 4.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 17 | 3.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 18low | 2.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 19 | 3.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 20 | 3.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 20latest | 3.00 % | 0 pts |
Lately
Both sides escalated rather than paused: Ukraine's drones set a St Petersburg oil terminal burning, Russia hit 28 energy facilities and cut power to 550,000 households, and Trump put on hold new Russia sanctions he signed into law. Putin's proposed summit with Trump and Xi seats no Ukrainian, and Kyiv comes to Oslo under US pressure to concede.