Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by Dec 31, 2026?
17 %
+0.00% day
A Polymarket contract on whether Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire, priced as a percentage that traders pay for the yes side. It is a wager on diplomacy, not a forecast of it, and it moves on what negotiators and armies do rather than on what either says.
Sep 5 · 17.00 % · −26.1% vs the window’s open
the numbers32
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 6high | 23.00 % | |
| Aug 7 | 23.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 8 | 22.00 % | −4.3% |
| Aug 9 | 22.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 10 | 22.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 11 | 22.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 12 | 22.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 13 | 21.00 % | −4.5% |
| Aug 14 | 21.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 15 | 21.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 16 | 21.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 17 | 20.00 % | −4.8% |
| Aug 18 | 19.00 % | −5.0% |
| Aug 19 | 19.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 20 | 19.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 21 | 18.00 % | −5.3% |
| Aug 22 | 17.00 % | −5.6% |
| Aug 23 | 16.00 % | −5.9% |
| Aug 24 | 16.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 25 | 16.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 26 | 18.00 % | +12.5% |
| Aug 27 | 16.00 % | −11.1% |
| Aug 28 | 16.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 29low | 14.00 % | −12.5% |
| Aug 30 | 16.00 % | +14.3% |
| Aug 31 | 14.00 % | −12.5% |
| Sep 1 | 16.00 % | +14.3% |
| Sep 2 | 16.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 3 | 14.00 % | −12.5% |
| Sep 4 | 16.00 % | +14.3% |
| Sep 5 | 17.00 % | +6.3% |
| Sep 5latest | 17.00 % | 0.0% |
Lately
US envoys Witkoff and Kushner are due in Moscow and Kiev with a plan to end the war, and Ukraine ordered a battlefield halt for Sept. 5-8 to receive them. Against that, both sides widened their strikes: Ukrainian sea drones set an oil depot ablaze near Sochi, over 1,000km from the front, and Germany formally blamed Russia for a drone attack on Leipzig airport.