Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by Dec 31, 2026?
12 %
0 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if Russia and Ukraine agree a ceasefire before the end of 2026. Its price is what traders will stake on the war pausing this year.
Oct 20 · 12.00 % · −2.00 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers28
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | 14.00 % | |
| Sep 22 | 14.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 23 | 14.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 24high | 17.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Sep 25 | 14.00 % | −3.00 pts |
| Sep 26 | 14.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 27 | 14.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 28 | 14.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 29 | 14.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 30 | 12.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 1 | 12.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 2 | 13.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 3 | 12.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 4 | 11.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 5 | 11.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 6 | 11.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 7 | 11.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 8 | 10.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 10low | 9.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 11 | 9.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 12 | 12.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Oct 13 | 13.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 14 | 10.00 % | −3.00 pts |
| Oct 16 | 10.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 17 | 10.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 19 | 10.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 20 | 12.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 20latest | 12.00 % | 0 pts |
Lately
The bottom came as the US turned to Russia for diesel despite sanctions. Bets recovered once Germany and Ukraine pressed Putin to join a full energy-sector truce, and talks opened in Oslo with Witkoff and Zelensky as Washington pressed Kyiv for concessions. Putin's proposed summit with Trump and Xi would seat no Ukrainian.