Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by Mar 31, 2027?
22 %
+1 pts day
A Polymarket contract on whether Russia and Ukraine agree a ceasefire by 31 March 2027. Its price is what traders pay for a share that returns a dollar if they do, so it moves on talks, battlefield news and Washington's diplomacy.
Nov 6 · 22.00 % · −26.0 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers11
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 21high | 48.00 % | |
| Oct 24 | 27.00 % | −21.0 pts |
| Oct 25 | 27.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 28 | 26.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 30 | 24.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Nov 2 | 24.00 % | 0 pts |
| Nov 3 | 24.00 % | 0 pts |
| Nov 4 | 23.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Nov 5 | 23.00 % | 0 pts |
| Nov 6low | 21.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Nov 6latest | 22.00 % | +1.00 pts |
Lately
The only truce the fortnight produced was local: a six-day ceasefire, brokered through Melania Trump, that let civilians leave occupied Oleshky. The first US-mediated Ukraine-Russia talks since February open in Abu Dhabi on 10 November, without Europe, while Ukraine's General Staff counted a record 54,400 Russian casualties in October.