Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by Oct 31, 2026?
4 %
+2 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if Russia and Ukraine agree a ceasefire by 31 October 2026. Its price is what traders will pay for that outcome, and it moves on envoy trips, summit offers and strikes on cities and grids.
Oct 20 · 4.00 % · −1.00 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers29
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 21high | 5.00 % | |
| Sep 22 | 5.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 23 | 5.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 24 | 5.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 25 | 5.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 26 | 5.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 27 | 5.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 28 | 5.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 29 | 5.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 30 | 5.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 1 | 3.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 2 | 4.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 3 | 3.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 4 | 3.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 5 | 3.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 6 | 3.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 7 | 3.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 8 | 3.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 9low | 2.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 10 | 2.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 11 | 2.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 12 | 4.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 13 | 3.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 14 | 3.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 16 | 2.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 17 | 2.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 19 | 2.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 20 | 2.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 20latest | 4.00 % | +2.00 pts |
Lately
Talk of a truce was about energy, not the front: Germany and Ukraine asked Putin to join a full energy-sector truce, then Russia hit 28 energy facilities and Ukrainian drones burned a St Petersburg oil terminal. Trump put new Russia sanctions on hold, Putin proposed a summit with Trump and Xi and no Ukrainian, and Witkoff headed to Russia after Oslo.