Hormuz traffic normal by Dec 31?
13 %
0 pts day
A Polymarket contract on whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by the end of the year. The strait carries about a fifth of the world's oil and much of the Gulf's gas and fertilizer.
Oct 20 · 13.00 % · −5.00 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers30
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | 18.00 % | |
| Sep 22 | 20.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Sep 23 | 24.00 % | +4.00 pts |
| Sep 24 | 21.00 % | −3.00 pts |
| Sep 25 | 23.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Sep 26high | 28.00 % | +5.00 pts |
| Sep 27 | 21.00 % | −7.00 pts |
| Sep 28 | 22.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Sep 29 | 23.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Sep 30 | 21.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 1 | 21.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 2 | 21.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 3 | 21.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 4 | 20.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 5 | 20.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 6 | 19.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 7 | 19.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 8 | 18.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 9 | 19.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 10 | 18.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 11 | 17.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 12 | 14.00 % | −3.00 pts |
| Oct 13 | 14.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 14 | 14.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 15 | 14.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 16low | 12.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 17 | 12.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 19 | 13.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 20 | 13.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 20latest | 13.00 % | 0 pts |
Lately
Bets bottomed as two ships sank off Hormuz, the GFS Pride among them, and Iran's army said it had fired on 3 ships in a record week of 12 attacks. Araghchi's offer in Baghdad to reopen the strait within 6 days came with conditions; hours later the IRGC said a tanker hit a mine, and Iran has since blacklisted 122 vessels.