Trump out as President before 2027?
6 %
+0.00% day
A Polymarket contract on whether Donald Trump ceases to be US president before 2027 — by death, resignation, removal or incapacity. The price is what traders will pay for that outcome, and it is one of the few continuously quoted measures of political tail risk in Washington.
Aug 17 · 6.00 % · −25.0% vs the window’s open
the numbers32
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 18high | 8.00 % | |
| Jul 19 | 7.00 % | −12.5% |
| Jul 20 | 8.00 % | +14.3% |
| Jul 21 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Jul 22 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Jul 23 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Jul 24 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Jul 25 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Jul 26 | 7.00 % | −12.5% |
| Jul 27 | 8.00 % | +14.3% |
| Jul 28 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Jul 29 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Jul 30 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Jul 31 | 7.00 % | −12.5% |
| Aug 1 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 2 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 3 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 4 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 5 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 6 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 7 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 8 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 9 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 10 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 11 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 12 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 13 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 14 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 15 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 16low | 6.00 % | −14.3% |
| Aug 17 | 6.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 17latest | 6.00 % | 0.0% |
Lately
The contract has drifted down over the past month, from 8% on 18 July to 6% on 16 August, with no discrete event behind the slide. What news there was ran the other way: an Iranian security-commission chairman, Ebrahim Azizi, told Trump to worry about his own security amid the Hormuz dispute, and a decoy plane swap in Ankara drew scrutiny CIA analysts gave low confidence to.