US announces end of Iranian blockade by December…
62 %
-1.59% day
A Polymarket contract on whether Washington declares its naval blockade of Iran over by a set date. It prices how long traders think the cordon holds, and the answer sets insurance, freight and oil-supply expectations across the Gulf.
Aug 30 · 62.00 % · −29.5% vs the window’s open
the numbers32
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 31 | 88.00 % | |
| Aug 1 | 83.00 % | −5.7% |
| Aug 2 | 82.00 % | −1.2% |
| Aug 3 | 90.00 % | +9.8% |
| Aug 4 | 89.00 % | −1.1% |
| Aug 5 | 94.00 % | +5.6% |
| Aug 6high | 96.00 % | +2.1% |
| Aug 7 | 94.00 % | −2.1% |
| Aug 8 | 95.00 % | +1.1% |
| Aug 9 | 92.00 % | −3.2% |
| Aug 10 | 85.00 % | −7.6% |
| Aug 11 | 78.00 % | −8.2% |
| Aug 12 | 81.00 % | +3.8% |
| Aug 13 | 84.00 % | +3.7% |
| Aug 14 | 82.00 % | −2.4% |
| Aug 15 | 78.00 % | −4.9% |
| Aug 16 | 79.00 % | +1.3% |
| Aug 17 | 81.00 % | +2.5% |
| Aug 18 | 74.00 % | −8.6% |
| Aug 19 | 68.00 % | −8.1% |
| Aug 20 | 69.00 % | +1.5% |
| Aug 21 | 67.00 % | −2.9% |
| Aug 22 | 67.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 23 | 69.00 % | +3.0% |
| Aug 24 | 71.00 % | +2.9% |
| Aug 25 | 70.00 % | −1.4% |
| Aug 26 | 76.00 % | +8.6% |
| Aug 27 | 76.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 28 | 70.00 % | −7.9% |
| Aug 29 | 68.00 % | −2.9% |
| Aug 30 | 63.00 % | −7.4% |
| Aug 30latest | 62.00 % | −1.6% |
Lately
The odds fell from 96 on Aug 6 to 62 as the blockade hardened rather than lifted. Washington unveiled "Operation Economic Outcast" and cut six Banque Misr branches out of dollar clearing, Tehran said foreign trade has shrunk by more than a third, and the IRGC claimed a veto over Hormuz even after Trump declared the strait clear.