US ends Iranian blockade by Dec 2026?
36 %
+1 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if the United States lifts its blockade of Iran before the end of 2026. Traders are betting on a settlement of the war, and with it on whether shipping returns to the Strait of Hormuz.
Oct 27 · 36.00 % · −22.0 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers27
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 28 | 58.00 % | |
| Sep 29 | 56.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Sep 30 | 58.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 1high | 59.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 2 | 54.00 % | −5.00 pts |
| Oct 3 | 54.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 4 | 52.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 5 | 53.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 6 | 52.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 7 | 50.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 8 | 49.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 9 | 49.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 10 | 48.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 11 | 42.00 % | −6.00 pts |
| Oct 12 | 45.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Oct 13 | 44.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 14 | 42.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 15 | 38.00 % | −4.00 pts |
| Oct 16 | 35.00 % | −3.00 pts |
| Oct 17low | 34.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 18 | 35.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 19 | 36.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 20 | 38.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 21 | 37.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 23 | 35.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 24 | 35.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 27latest | 36.00 % | +1.00 pts |
Lately
Washington spent the month preparing to escalate rather than lift: the talk was of the 'Mother of All Bombs', and Trump said the US may strike Iran as soon as Sunday. Tehran hardened too, as Khamenei backed its war conditions and Iran threatened Sinokor's tankers under its Hormuz transit rules from 1 November.