US ends Iran blockade by Sept 14?
10 %
-16.67% day
A Polymarket contract on whether Washington lifts its naval blockade of Iran by a set date. It prices how traders read the pressure campaign — the odds fall when sanctions widen and rise when the strait and its shipping start moving again.
Aug 29 · 10.00 % · −52.4% vs the window’s open
the numbers12
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 19 | 21.00 % | |
| Aug 20 | 16.00 % | −23.8% |
| Aug 21 | 12.00 % | −25.0% |
| Aug 22 | 12.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 23 | 13.00 % | +8.3% |
| Aug 24 | 20.00 % | +53.8% |
| Aug 25 | 13.00 % | −35.0% |
| Aug 26 | 23.00 % | +76.9% |
| Aug 27high | 24.00 % | +4.3% |
| Aug 28 | 14.00 % | −41.7% |
| Aug 29 | 12.00 % | −14.3% |
| Aug 29latest | 10.00 % | −16.7% |
Lately
Odds halved from 24% on Aug 27 to 10% as Washington widened rather than eased the campaign: Treasury cut six Banque Misr branches out of dollar clearing on 28 Aug under "Operation Economic Outcast," and Pezeshkian conceded foreign trade has shrunk by more than a third. The IRGC meanwhile claimed a veto over Hormuz transits.