US-Iran ceasefire holds through midterms?
74 %
−2 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if the ceasefire between the United States and Iran is still holding on the day of the US midterm elections. Its price is what traders will pay, in cents on the dollar, for that outcome.
Oct 16 · 74.00 % · +1.00 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers7
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10low | 73.00 % | |
| Oct 11 | 76.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Oct 12 | 75.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 13 | 77.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 14high | 78.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 16 | 76.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 16latest | 74.00 % | −2.00 pts |
Lately
Iran struck shipping off Hormuz all week: six ships hit in one day, then two Emirati cargo ships sunk within 24 hours, which Iran's army tied to keeping Hormuz closed until its rights are respected. On the US side, planners drafted strikes with a 21,600-pound bomb that cannot reach Fordow's buried halls.