US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?
26 %
+4 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if Washington and Tehran reach an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz by November 30. Its price is what traders will pay for that outcome, on the waterway that carries Gulf oil and gas to the world.
Nov 4 · 26.00 % · +3.00 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers29
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 | 23.00 % | |
| Oct 6 | 22.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 7high | 28.00 % | +6.00 pts |
| Oct 8 | 27.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 9 | 27.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 10 | 25.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 11 | 24.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 12 | 23.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 13 | 24.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 14 | 25.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 15 | 24.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 16 | 22.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 17low | 20.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 18 | 20.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 19 | 20.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 20 | 25.00 % | +5.00 pts |
| Oct 21 | 26.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 23 | 25.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 24 | 23.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 26 | 23.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 27 | 22.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 28 | 20.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 30 | 22.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 31 | 24.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Nov 1 | 26.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Nov 2 | 25.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Nov 3 | 28.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Nov 4 | 22.00 % | −6.00 pts |
| Nov 4latest | 26.00 % | +4.00 pts |
Lately
Iran cut its Hormuz reopening offer from 7 days to 2 and tied it to the US lifting its blockade. A day after Trump said "no" to new strikes and a Qatari delegation headed for Tehran, US strikes hit Qeshm Island and Bandar Lengeh. Tehran answered with five conditions, including recognition of its sovereignty over Hormuz.