US recession by end of 2026?
14 %
-17.65% day
A Polymarket contract on whether the United States enters a recession before the end of 2026, priced as the share traders will pay for a yes. It is a wager on the business cycle, and it reprices whenever growth or rates news lands.
Sep 16 · 14.00 % · +75.0% vs the window’s open
the numbers32
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 17 | 8.00 % | |
| Aug 18 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 19 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 20 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 21 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 22 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 23 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 24 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 25 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 26 | 9.00 % | +12.5% |
| Aug 27 | 9.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 28 | 9.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 29 | 8.00 % | −11.1% |
| Aug 30 | 9.00 % | +12.5% |
| Aug 31 | 8.00 % | −11.1% |
| Sep 1 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 2 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 3 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 4low | 7.00 % | −12.5% |
| Sep 5 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 6 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 7 | 8.00 % | +14.3% |
| Sep 8 | 7.00 % | −12.5% |
| Sep 9 | 8.00 % | +14.3% |
| Sep 10 | 8.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 11 | 9.00 % | +12.5% |
| Sep 12 | 7.00 % | −22.2% |
| Sep 13 | 7.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 14 | 10.00 % | +42.9% |
| Sep 15 | 10.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 16high | 17.00 % | +70.0% |
| Sep 16latest | 14.00 % | −17.6% |
Lately
The Houthis' capture of Yemen's port of Mocha drove oil sharply higher, arriving on top of a payroll surge and a CPI print that together left traders pricing a September Fed hike near 70%. An oil shock met by tightening rather than easing is the combination this contract is bought against.