US-Iran ceasefire holds to Oct 15?
85 %
-3.41% day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if the ceasefire between the United States and Iran is still in place on its deadline. The price is what traders will pay for that outcome, and it moves with each report from the talks.
Oct 5 · 85.00 % · +14.9% vs the window’s open
the numbers7
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 | 74.00 % | |
| Oct 1low | 73.00 % | −1.4% |
| Oct 2 | 78.00 % | +6.8% |
| Oct 3 | 81.00 % | +3.8% |
| Oct 4 | 79.00 % | −2.5% |
| Oct 5high | 88.00 % | +11.4% |
| Oct 5latest | 85.00 % | −3.4% |
Lately
Traders marked the contract down when Trump vowed a tough response if Iran was linked to the flydubai incident. It recovered as Washington answered, through Qatar, Tehran's plan to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz; deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi says Iran is reviewing the reply.