US-Iran ceasefire holds through Oct 28?
82 %
−1 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if the ceasefire between the United States and Iran survives to its deadline. Its price is what traders will pay for that outcome, so it moves on every strike threat and every offer between the two.
Oct 24 · 82.00 % · −1.00 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers9
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 | 83.00 % | |
| Oct 16low | 81.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 17 | 81.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 18 | 85.00 % | +4.00 pts |
| Oct 19high | 86.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 20 | 84.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 21 | 86.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 23 | 83.00 % | −3.00 pts |
| Oct 24latest | 82.00 % | −1.00 pts |
Lately
The bets turn on timing: the Pentagon's reported plans for renewed strikes on Iran are parked until after the 3 November midterms, while Trump said a US strike was possible as soon as Sunday. Tehran offered, via Pakistani mediators, to reopen Hormuz if Washington lifts its blockade, and the US pulled nonessential staff from Saudi Arabia.