US ceasefire against Iran continues through…
87 %
+0.00% day
A Polymarket contract on whether the US–Iran ceasefire holds to a set date. The price is what traders will pay for that outcome, so it moves on strikes, sanctions and diplomacy rather than on any official assessment.
Aug 29 · 87.00 % · +27.9% vs the window’s open
the numbers12
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 19low | 68.00 % | |
| Aug 20 | 80.00 % | +17.6% |
| Aug 21 | 74.00 % | −7.5% |
| Aug 22 | 73.00 % | −1.4% |
| Aug 23 | 78.00 % | +6.8% |
| Aug 24 | 81.00 % | +3.8% |
| Aug 25 | 82.00 % | +1.2% |
| Aug 26 | 88.00 % | +7.3% |
| Aug 27high | 90.00 % | +2.3% |
| Aug 28 | 89.00 % | −1.1% |
| Aug 29 | 87.00 % | −2.2% |
| Aug 29latest | 87.00 % | 0.0% |
Lately
The contract sank to 68 on Aug 19 as Washington prepared "Operation Economic Outcast", the sanctions package that cut US dollar access for six Banque Misr branches and drew Iran's denunciation. It recovered to 90 by Aug 27 as Hormuz stayed navigable: Trump declared the strait clear, Iran and Oman charted a temporary corridor, and 7 tankers crossed Thursday.