US-Iran effective ceasefire by Nov 15?
37 %
−7 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if the United States and Iran reach an effective ceasefire by 15 November. Its price is what traders will pay for that outcome, and it moves on strikes, talks and statements from either capital.
Nov 13 · 37.00 % · −3.00 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers6
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | 40.00 % | |
| Nov 10 | 44.00 % | +4.00 pts |
| Nov 11 | 48.00 % | +4.00 pts |
| Nov 12high | 54.00 % | +6.00 pts |
| Nov 13 | 44.00 % | −10.0 pts |
| Nov 13latest | 37.00 % | −7.00 pts |
Lately
Trump posted that there is no need for a deal with Iran on the same day Iran's Guards claimed to have destroyed a US radar in Bahrain. A day earlier, Iran's Assembly of Experts urged leaving the nuclear treaty, while Netanyahu was pressing Trump almost daily to resume striking Iran.