Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of…
53 %
+1.92% day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if Gadi Eizenkot, the former Israeli army chief of staff who moved into opposition politics, forms the next government in Israel. Traders price it as a read on whether Netanyahu's coalition holds.
Sep 8 · 53.00 % · +3.9% vs the window’s open
the numbers32
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 9 | 51.00 % | |
| Aug 10 | 51.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 11 | 52.00 % | +2.0% |
| Aug 12 | 52.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 13 | 53.00 % | +1.9% |
| Aug 14 | 52.00 % | −1.9% |
| Aug 15 | 55.00 % | +5.8% |
| Aug 16 | 54.00 % | −1.8% |
| Aug 17 | 54.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 18 | 53.00 % | −1.9% |
| Aug 19 | 53.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 20 | 56.00 % | +5.7% |
| Aug 21 | 57.00 % | +1.8% |
| Aug 22 | 57.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 23 | 56.00 % | −1.8% |
| Aug 24high | 58.00 % | +3.6% |
| Aug 25 | 55.00 % | −5.2% |
| Aug 26 | 55.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 27 | 56.00 % | +1.8% |
| Aug 28 | 51.00 % | −8.9% |
| Aug 29 | 50.00 % | −2.0% |
| Aug 30 | 50.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 31 | 50.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 1 | 51.00 % | +2.0% |
| Sep 2 | 50.00 % | −2.0% |
| Sep 3 | 50.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 4 | 49.00 % | −2.0% |
| Sep 5low | 47.00 % | −4.1% |
| Sep 6 | 49.00 % | +4.3% |
| Sep 7 | 50.00 % | +2.0% |
| Sep 8 | 52.00 % | +4.0% |
| Sep 8latest | 53.00 % | +1.9% |
Lately
Nothing in the past fortnight bears on who forms the next government. What came out of Israel was Smotrich's claim on Areas A and B, Ben-Gvir's first-year expulsion quota of 250,000, and strikes in Gaza and on Ghandour Hospital in Nabatieh — the conduct of the war, not the arithmetic of a coalition.