JD Vance wins 2028 US election?
20 %
+1 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if JD Vance, the US vice-president, wins the 2028 presidential election. Its price is what traders pay for that outcome, and it tracks his standing as heir to the Republican nomination.
Nov 6 · 20.00 % · 0 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers26
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | 20.00 % | |
| Oct 8 | 20.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 9 | 20.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 10 | 19.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 11 | 19.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 12 | 20.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 13high | 22.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 14 | 22.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 15 | 22.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 16 | 21.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 17 | 21.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 19 | 20.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 20 | 20.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 21 | 20.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 23 | 20.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 24 | 20.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 27 | 19.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 28 | 18.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 30low | 17.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Nov 1 | 18.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Nov 2 | 18.00 % | 0 pts |
| Nov 3 | 18.00 % | 0 pts |
| Nov 4 | 18.00 % | 0 pts |
| Nov 5 | 17.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Nov 6 | 19.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Nov 6latest | 20.00 % | +1.00 pts |
Lately
After the midterms, Vance broke with Donald Trump in public, blaming the Iran war for the crushing defeat, while Trump made Defense Secretary Hegseth pay for the debacle. That split came after most of the slide, and nothing else in the fortnight's news accounts for the earlier fall.