Likud wins 30-34 seats in 2026?
9 %
+1 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if Likud, Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing party, wins between 30 and 34 of the Knesset's 120 seats in Israel's 2026 election. Its price is what traders will pay for that band.
Oct 19 · 9.00 % · 0 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers30
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 | 9.00 % | |
| Sep 21 | 11.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Sep 22 | 10.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Sep 23 | 12.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Sep 24 | 12.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 25 | 11.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Sep 26 | 13.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Sep 27 | 12.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Sep 28 | 9.00 % | −3.00 pts |
| Sep 29 | 12.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Sep 30 | 14.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 1 | 17.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Oct 2high | 18.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 3 | 16.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 4 | 14.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 5 | 16.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 6 | 14.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 7 | 14.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 8 | 14.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 9 | 14.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 10 | 13.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 11 | 13.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 12 | 12.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 13 | 9.00 % | −3.00 pts |
| Oct 14 | 10.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 15 | 11.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 16 | 11.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 17 | 9.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 19low | 8.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 19latest | 9.00 % | +1.00 pts |
Lately
Netanyahu spent the fortnight answering ex-Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar's 3 million shekel defamation suit over October 7, and alleging a smear after settlers beat a French mayor in Taybeh. Neither story carries a poll or a seat count, and nothing in them accounts for the bets on Likud.