Likud wins most seats in 2026 election?
31 %
+3 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if Likud, Benjamin Netanyahu's party, wins more Knesset seats than any other list in Israel's 2026 election. The largest party is usually first asked to form a coalition.
Oct 21 · 31.00 % · −7.00 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers28
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | 38.00 % | |
| Sep 23 | 37.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Sep 24 | 38.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Sep 25 | 38.00 % | 0 pts |
| Sep 26 | 41.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Sep 27 | 39.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Sep 28 | 42.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Sep 29 | 40.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Sep 30 | 42.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 1 | 42.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 2 | 45.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Oct 3 | 53.00 % | +8.00 pts |
| Oct 4high | 55.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 5 | 54.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 6 | 46.00 % | −8.00 pts |
| Oct 7 | 50.00 % | +4.00 pts |
| Oct 8 | 51.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 10 | 52.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 11 | 51.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 12 | 52.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 13 | 50.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 14 | 42.00 % | −8.00 pts |
| Oct 16 | 39.00 % | −3.00 pts |
| Oct 17 | 33.00 % | −6.00 pts |
| Oct 19 | 33.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 20low | 28.00 % | −5.00 pts |
| Oct 21 | 28.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 21latest | 31.00 % | +3.00 pts |
Lately
The run-up to the vote brought a defamation suit from former Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, seeking 3 million shekels from Netanyahu over October 7; an EU rebuke over settler attacks on diplomats that Netanyahu called a smear; and an unannounced visit from Pete Hegseth days before the election. None of it accounts for the bets moving against Likud.