Lula wins Brazil 1st round by 5–10%?
12 %
+0.00% day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishes first in Brazil's presidential first round with a lead of 5 to 10 percentage points over the runner-up. Its price is what traders are betting, not a poll.
Oct 4 · 12.00 % · −69.2% vs the window’s open
the numbers31
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5high | 39.00 % | |
| Sep 6 | 37.00 % | −5.1% |
| Sep 7 | 37.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 8 | 37.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 9 | 37.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 10 | 30.00 % | −18.9% |
| Sep 11 | 25.00 % | −16.7% |
| Sep 12 | 24.00 % | −4.0% |
| Sep 13 | 21.00 % | −12.5% |
| Sep 14 | 21.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 15 | 16.00 % | −23.8% |
| Sep 16 | 18.00 % | +12.5% |
| Sep 17 | 18.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 18 | 14.00 % | −22.2% |
| Sep 19 | 13.00 % | −7.1% |
| Sep 20 | 12.00 % | −7.7% |
| Sep 21 | 12.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 22 | 12.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 23low | 9.00 % | −25.0% |
| Sep 24 | 10.00 % | +11.1% |
| Sep 25 | 11.00 % | +10.0% |
| Sep 26 | 9.00 % | −18.2% |
| Sep 27 | 11.00 % | +22.2% |
| Sep 28 | 14.00 % | +27.3% |
| Sep 29 | 15.00 % | +7.1% |
| Sep 30 | 17.00 % | +13.3% |
| Oct 1 | 16.00 % | −5.9% |
| Oct 2 | 15.00 % | −6.3% |
| Oct 3 | 11.00 % | −26.7% |
| Oct 4 | 12.00 % | +9.1% |
| Oct 4latest | 12.00 % | 0.0% |
Lately
Brazil votes on Sunday for a president, governors and lawmakers, and a candidate needs more than half the valid votes to avoid a run-off. Nothing reported in the past fortnight accounts for the change in what traders will pay for this margin.