Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
93 %
+0.00% day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if the US Federal Reserve gets through 2026 without cutting its policy rate once. Its price is what traders will pay for that outcome, and it moves on inflation data and on what Fed officials say.
Sep 10 · 93.00 % · +8.1% vs the window’s open
the numbers32
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 11 | 86.00 % | |
| Aug 12 | 86.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 13 | 86.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 14 | 86.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 15low | 85.00 % | −1.2% |
| Aug 16 | 85.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 17 | 85.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 18 | 85.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 19 | 85.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 20 | 85.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 21 | 86.00 % | +1.2% |
| Aug 22 | 85.00 % | −1.2% |
| Aug 23 | 86.00 % | +1.2% |
| Aug 24 | 86.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 25 | 87.00 % | +1.2% |
| Aug 26 | 86.00 % | −1.1% |
| Aug 27 | 87.00 % | +1.2% |
| Aug 28 | 88.00 % | +1.1% |
| Aug 29 | 88.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 30 | 88.00 % | 0.0% |
| Aug 31 | 88.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 1 | 89.00 % | +1.1% |
| Sep 2 | 89.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 3 | 89.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 4 | 89.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 5high | 93.00 % | +4.5% |
| Sep 6 | 93.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 7 | 93.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 8 | 93.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 9 | 93.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 10 | 93.00 % | 0.0% |
| Sep 10latest | 93.00 % | 0.0% |
Lately
At Jackson Hole, Warsh said the Fed would have "work to do" if inflation doesn't fade, and an oil shock kept that inflation going. Then a payroll surge in early September moved the betting further, from no cut at all to a September hike, and the tech stocks and bitcoin that depend on cheap money fell with it.