No US-Iran senior meeting by 2026?
56 %
−1 pts day
A Polymarket contract that pays out if no senior American and Iranian officials meet before 2026 ends. The two governments have met at that level only rarely since 1979, so a meeting would break a long pattern.
Nov 5 · 56.00 % · +4.00 pts vs the window’s open
the numbers29
| when | value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | 52.00 % | |
| Oct 7low | 50.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 8 | 54.00 % | +4.00 pts |
| Oct 9 | 56.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 10 | 56.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 11 | 55.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Oct 12 | 56.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 13 | 52.00 % | −4.00 pts |
| Oct 14 | 55.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Oct 15 | 58.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Oct 16 | 62.00 % | +4.00 pts |
| Oct 17 | 66.00 % | +4.00 pts |
| Oct 18 | 64.00 % | −2.00 pts |
| Oct 19 | 65.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Oct 20 | 59.00 % | −6.00 pts |
| Oct 21 | 59.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 23 | 63.00 % | +4.00 pts |
| Oct 24 | 65.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 26 | 65.00 % | 0 pts |
| Oct 27high | 67.00 % | +2.00 pts |
| Oct 28 | 64.00 % | −3.00 pts |
| Oct 30 | 55.00 % | −9.00 pts |
| Oct 31 | 52.00 % | −3.00 pts |
| Nov 1 | 53.00 % | +1.00 pts |
| Nov 2 | 59.00 % | +6.00 pts |
| Nov 3 | 55.00 % | −4.00 pts |
| Nov 4 | 54.00 % | −1.00 pts |
| Nov 5 | 57.00 % | +3.00 pts |
| Nov 5latest | 56.00 % | −1.00 pts |
Lately
Tehran hardened its terms: it set five conditions, including recognition of its sovereignty over Hormuz, and cut its Hormuz reopening offer from 7 days to 2. The US struck Qeshm Island before the midterms, and after the Democratic sweep Mojtaba Khamenei said the vote would not soften US hostility.